Q3 2025 Crypto Outlook: ETF Inflows and Treasury Demand Point to Record Quarter
Main Idea
The crypto market in Q3 2025 shows strong performance with record ETF inflows and corporate treasury demand, despite historical seasonal weaknesses.
Key Points
1. Bitcoin ETF inflows reached about $55 billion year-to-date by July 2025, with significant contributions from major issuers like BlackRock’s IBIT and Bitwise’s BITB.
2. Ether ETFs logged a 17-day inflow streak, collecting over $726 million, indicating strong institutional conviction.
3. Corporate treasuries, including MicroStrategy, accelerated Bitcoin purchases, with MicroStrategy holding nearly 600,000 BTC, over 3% of global supply.
4. Q3 has historically been Bitcoin's worst-performing quarter since 2013, with an average return of just +6%, but macro and regulatory changes may alter this trend.
5. Bitcoin’s annualized rate of return stood at 230%, significantly outperforming traditional assets like the Nasdaq index, large U.S. stocks, high-yield bonds, and gold.
Description
The crypto market enters Q3 with strong bullish fundamentals from ETF and corporate buying. The case is built on strong July price action, record ETF inflows, and a corporate supply squeeze. However, historical data shows Q3 is traditionally the weakest quarter of the year for Bitcoin. The crypto market is heading into the third quarter of 2025 with a powerfully bullish setup, but this momentum is on a collision course with a major historical headwind. While the July data brings in a show of a s...
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