Powell’s ‘rate cut’ pause puts Bitcoin’s price on hold—Is the rally over?

Key Points

1. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, which left Bitcoin trading range-bound below $120K.

2. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on potential rate cuts caused markets to adjust expectations, with September cut odds dropping to 41% and zero cuts for 2025 rising to 25%.

3. Bitcoin's Total Unrealized Profit (NUPL aggregate) reached a record $1.4 trillion, indicating significant latent supply but thinning market conviction.

4. Long-term holders (LTHs) have distributed 207,000 BTC over the past 30 days, signaling strategic de-risking amid macro uncertainty.

5. Without new catalysts, Bitcoin's liquidity backdrop is drying up, potentially keeping its price stagnant into Q3.