Powell’s ‘rate cut’ pause puts Bitcoin’s price on hold—Is the rally over?
Main Idea
The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has led to a repricing of market expectations, impacting Bitcoin's price stability and reducing its upside potential due to a lack of fresh catalysts.
Key Points
1. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, which left Bitcoin trading range-bound below $120K.
2. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on potential rate cuts caused markets to adjust expectations, with September cut odds dropping to 41% and zero cuts for 2025 rising to 25%.
3. Bitcoin's Total Unrealized Profit (NUPL aggregate) reached a record $1.4 trillion, indicating significant latent supply but thinning market conviction.
4. Long-term holders (LTHs) have distributed 207,000 BTC over the past 30 days, signaling strategic de-risking amid macro uncertainty.
5. Without new catalysts, Bitcoin's liquidity backdrop is drying up, potentially keeping its price stagnant into Q3.
Description
Bitcoin’s $1.4 trillion in unrealized gains face a test as macro tailwinds fade.
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