Bitcoin’s robust four-month rally is showing signs of vulnerability, with key on-chain metrics suggesting potential market turbulence. Recent data reveals heightened whale activity, significant long-term holder behavior shifts, and diverging altcoin performance, raising concerns among analysts about a possible correction.
Between mid-July, Bitcoin whale-to-exchange transactions surged to $45 billion, historically a precursor to price corrections when inflow volumes exceed critical thresholds. While below the $75 billion peak that triggered past downturns, the spike indicates whales are mobilizing assets, potentially for distribution.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin’s 30-day average Coin Days Destroyed hit a yearly high exceeding 31 million, signaling movement of long-dormant coins. Such CDD spikes typically coincide with market tops or asset redistribution phases, reflecting growing profit-taking among holders.
The altcoin-Bitcoin correlation turned negative recently, marking the third such divergence in 2025. Previous negative correlations in January and May preceded notable Bitcoin pullbacks. Analysts interpret this as capital rotation toward altcoins and warn that sustained low correlation periods often foreshadow volatility events like mass liquidations.
These metrics highlight uneven institutional participation and suggest Bitcoin’s rally may face near-term resistance despite its recent strength, underscoring the need for investor caution amidst shifting market dynamics.