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U.S. July CPI Rose Softer Than Hoped 2.7%, but Core Rate of 3.1% Disappoints

2025-08-12 13:22:47

U.S. July CPI Rose Softer Than Hoped 2.7%, but Core Rate of 3.1% Disappoints

Main Idea

The U.S. July CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, below expectations, while the core CPI increased 3.1%, higher than anticipated, leading to mixed market reactions.

Key Points

1. The July U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year, below the expected 2.8%.

2. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 3.1% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3%.

3. Bitcoin rose modestly to just below $119,000 following the release of the CPI data.

4. Market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September rose from 84% to 90% after the CPI report.

5. U.S. stock index futures, including the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, rose about 0.6% post-CPI release.

Description

U.S. inflation data for July came in mixed, with headline numbers better than forecast, but the core rate rising faster than expected. The July U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economist forecasts had been for 0.2% and June's pace was 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, CPI was higher by 2.7% against 2.8% expected and 2.7% previously. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% from the prior month, compared with forecasts for 0.3% and June’s...

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