Two Charts, Two Stories: The Strange Divergence in Ethereum’s Exchange Data

Key Points

1. Ethereum is trading around $4,200, nearing the crucial $4,400 resistance level, with momentum indicators like MACD and buying volume remaining positive.

2. On-chain data shows a mixed picture: the Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) is near 0.16, indicating withdrawals, while Binance ESR has been rising, suggesting potential selling pressure.

3. A breakout above $4,400 could push ETH toward $4,800, but continued heavy inflows and rejection at $4,400 may lead to a pullback to $3,950-$4,000 support.

4. Institutional interest has been strong, with over 1.035 million ETH (worth ~$4.17 billion) acquired by large players between July 10 and early August at an average price of $3,546.

5. Ethereum’s circulating supply reached a record 121 million ETH on August 9, nearly three years after crossing 120 million, while social media sentiment remains high but could cool momentum.