This Overlooked Binance Metric Might Predict Bitcoin’s Next Major Move
2025-07-09 07:44:09
Main Idea
Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating between $105,000 and $110,000, with a structural imbalance indicated by the negative Spot-Perpetual Price Delta on Binance since December 2024.
Key Points
1. Bitcoin has mostly traded between $105,000 and $110,000 this month.
2. Binance's perpetual markets have shown a negative Spot-Perpetual Price Delta since December 2024, indicating a structural imbalance.
3. Bitcoin's price decline to $74,000 was followed by a rebound, with spot demand being driven by excessive leverage.
4. Short-term holders' realized price of $98,220 and cost basis near $99,474 suggest continued accumulation by newer participants, including institutions via ETFs.
5. Whales have distributed over 14,000 BTC since June 30, while retail and institutional investors absorb supply.
Description
Bitcoin has mostly traded between $105,000 and $110,000 this month, hovering near its all-time high. Yet on Binance, perpetual futures prices continue to lag behind spot prices. The continued negative Spot-Perpetual Price Delta on Binance since December 2024 reveals a structural imbalance. Spot Leads, Futures Lags In its latest analysis, CryptoQuant explained that this negative delta indicates the spot price of Bitcoin has consistently traded above perpetual futures prices. This means that the c...
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