MicroStrategy mNAV Plunge: A Crucial Warning for Corporate Crypto Treasury

Key Points

1. MicroStrategy's mNAV has dropped to its lowest since February 2024, indicating reduced investor enthusiasm for its stock as a Bitcoin proxy.

2. The mNAV metric shows the market values MicroStrategy's stock (MSTR) relative to its Bitcoin holdings, with current values at 1.4 (Protos data), 1.61 (self-reported), and 1.57 (diluted share).

3. Over the past six months, Bitcoin's growth (20.5%) has outpaced MSTR's stock increase (9.3%), marking a reversal of the historical trend where MSTR outperformed Bitcoin.

4. The shrinking premium for MSTR stock suggests a reevaluation of corporate crypto treasury strategies, emphasizing the need to assess the market's perception of Bitcoin holdings.

5. The decline in mNAV serves as a warning for companies considering Bitcoin investments, highlighting the volatility and shifting dynamics of market valuations.