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June ADP report shows massive miss in private-sector jobs

2025-07-02 20:16:04

Main Idea

The June ADP employment report showed a significant miss with the private sector losing 33,000 jobs, contrary to the expected gain of 100,000 jobs, marking the first negative print since March 2023.

Key Points

1. The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, a stark contrast to the expected addition of 100,000 positions.

2. This is the first negative employment print since March 2023, with figures declining monthly since March 2025.

3. Odds of a 25bps interest rate cut later in the month increased to 23.8%, up from 20.7% the previous day.

4. Upcoming reports include weekly initial jobless claims and the June employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with expectations of 240,000 initial claims and 110,000 nonfarm payrolls added.

5. Unemployment is projected to rise slightly to 4.3% from 4.2% in May.

Description

The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June; analysts had projected payrolls to add 100,000 positions

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