July’s Rate Cut Dreams Fade: Fed Seen Holding Firm as Trump Fumes
2025-07-10 15:38:39
Main Idea
The U.S. Federal Reserve is highly unlikely to cut interest rates in July 2025, with market odds at 93.3%, while expectations for a potential rate cut in September are gaining traction.
Key Points
1. As of July 10, 2025, the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 93.3% probability of no rate change in July, with only a 6.7% chance of a quarter-point cut.
2. The last rate cut occurred on Dec. 18, 2024, under President Biden, setting the federal funds rate (FFR) to 4.25%–4.50%.
3. For the September FOMC meeting, 63.9% of traders anticipate a quarter-point cut, while 31.7% expect no change.
4. Market sentiment and Fed decisions could significantly influence equities, crypto, and precious metals in the coming weeks.
5. President Trump has expressed frustration with the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell over their policies.
Description
While both equities and bitcoin have climbed to record highs, expectations for a July rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve remain dim. As of now—20 days ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting—the odds of no rate change sit at a hefty 93.3%. Fed Freeze: 93% Say No July Cut as September
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