HTX：Macro Dislocation and Crypto Re-Pricing – How Fed Revaluation and “Project Crypto” Are Resetting the Playing Field

Key Points

1. The Fed left the funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%, but July non-farm payrolls collapsed to 73k jobs versus the 180k consensus, leading to a sharp reset in rate expectations.

2. Market reactions included a surge in the probability of a September rate cut (from 38% to 82%), a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.10%, and volatility in Bitcoin and gold prices.

3. Household debt stands at 98% of disposable income, credit-card delinquencies eased to 2.5%, and retail sales remain stable (2.8%-3.1% YoY), with the top 10% of households controlling 72% of wealth.

4. SEC Chair Paul Atkins introduced 'Project Crypto,' aiming to deregulate and promote on-chain finance, including exemptions for DeFi protocols like Uniswap and Aave, and a 'Super-App' license for brokers.

5. The SEC plans to revise the Howey Test and adopt ERC-3643 as a standard for tokenized RWA, facilitating compliant real estate and private equity investments.