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Friday charts: Fiscal dominance and super intelligence

2025-07-18 21:38:39

Main Idea

The article discusses market optimism, fiscal dominance concerns, and the potential impact of AI advancements on economic policy, while also highlighting current economic conditions and trends.

Key Points

1. US equities hit all-time highs amid market optimism, but concerns about fiscal dominance arise as political pressure mounts on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

2. Chair Powell's tenure and potential replacement by Kevin Warsh are noted, with implications for monetary policy and economic stability.

3. Meta's advancements in AI, including self-improving models, raise questions about the relevance of traditional economic policies like interest rates and tariffs.

4. Current economic indicators, such as the 'misery index', show favorable conditions despite earlier economist concerns, with unemployment and inflation rates below long-term averages.

5. US tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft are reportedly reducing payrolls, betting on AI to replace certain jobs, while China leads in scientific research, prompting competition concerns.

Description

Markets are all-in on optimism — is that a forecast or a delusion?

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