Four-year Bitcoin cycles are dead, Bitwise CIO says
Main Idea
Bitwise investment director Matt Hougan suggests that the traditional four-year cryptocurrency cycles may no longer apply due to legislative support and increasing Wall Street involvement, though he warns of risks like corporate Bitcoin treasury formation.
Key Points
1. Legislative support, such as the GENIUS Act, is encouraging Wall Street to view cryptocurrencies positively, unlike in 2018.
2. Hougan believes long-term cryptocurrency trends will outweigh traditional four-year cycle factors, predicting 2026 to be a strong year with significant volatility.
3. He identifies the formation of corporate Bitcoin treasuries as a significant risk to monitor.
4. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju admitted to previous forecasting errors.
5. BNB reached an all-time high of $804 on Binance, surpassing Solana.
Description
Bitwise investment director Matt Hougan concluded that four-year cycles are no longer relevant for Bitcoin. The forces that shaped these cycles have weakened in the new environment. The expert drew attention to the following changes: Halvings, which led to ”demand shocks,” have been replaced by steady, incremental purchases of cryptocurrency by institutions and corporations. The risk of collapse has been reduced by improved regulation and the institutionalization of the industry. The new trend f...
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