Fed Rate Cuts: Kalshi Traders See Unsettling 29% Odds of No Cuts This Year
Main Idea
Prediction market platform Kalshi indicates a 29% probability of no Fed rate cuts this year, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.
Key Points
1. Kalshi's data shows a 29% chance the Federal Reserve will implement zero rate cuts in 2024, signaling growing skepticism about monetary easing.
2. Core PCE inflation remains stubbornly high (2.8%–3.0% YoY), exceeding the Fed's 2% target, complicating rate-cut decisions.
3. The Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability faces challenges as unemployment nears the natural rate (~4.0%) while inflation persists.
4. A 'higher for longer' interest rate environment could dampen liquidity and speculative investments, including in cryptocurrencies.
5. Investors are advised to diversify portfolios and focus on fundamentals amid uncertainty over Fed policy.
Description
BitcoinWorld Fed Rate Cuts: Kalshi Traders See Unsettling 29% Odds of No Cuts This Year The financial world is abuzz with a fresh wave of economic uncertainty, and astute investors, particularly those in the cryptocurrency space, are keenly watching. Prediction market platform Kalshi has recently revealed a striking 29% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement zero Fed rate cuts this year. This unexpected forecast, reported by Walter Bloomberg and citing the insightful analysis o...
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