FED Meeting on July 19 2025: 96.9% Chance of No Interest Rate Hike
Main Idea
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% during the July 19, 2025 FOMC meeting, with a minor chance of a rate cut and no probability of a hike, amid stable economic indicators and political pressure.
Key Points
1. Veteran trader Matthew Dixon predicts a 96.9% chance the Fed will hold rates at 4.25%–4.50%, a 3.1% chance of a 25 bps cut, and 0% chance of a hike.
2. The June 2025 FOMC meeting showed a shift in Fed sentiment toward fewer rate cuts, with the last actual cuts occurring in September and November 2024.
3. US inflation has moderated to 2.7% in June 2025, while unemployment remains stable at 4.1%, suggesting no urgency for Fed action.
4. Political pressure on the Fed includes criticism from President Donald Trump and calls for Jerome Powell's removal by Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.
5. Matthew Dixon views a rate pause as mildly bullish for risk-on assets like crypto, with markets expecting no surprises from the Fed.
Description
The post FED Meeting on July 19 2025: 96.9% Chance of No Interest Rate Hike appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News The next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 19, 2025, and all eyes are on the central bank’s decision. Veteran trader Matthew Dixon has made a sensational claim on X, stating there’s a 96.9% chance the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, and zero probability of a rate hike. Dixon also noted a minor 3.1% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, but he emphasized that ...
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