Experts Suggest Bitcoin Could Face Further Correction Amid Rising CTA Exposure and Market Uncertainty

Key Points

1. Bitcoin's correction risk is rising as CTA exposure in the US equity market reaches a four-year peak at 110% long positions.

2. Options traders are targeting put options between $100,000 and $80,000, reflecting expectations of a 10-30% price decline over the next month.

3. Recent downward revisions of Nonfarm Payrolls data have increased speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts, with an 81.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September.

4. Experts suggest a potential Federal Reserve pivot, possibly involving a 50 basis point rate cut, which could support Bitcoin prices in the medium term but leaves near-term volatility.

5. Bitcoin's short-term price behavior may involve sideways trading ('chopsolidation') rather than a sharp crash, with some analysts predicting it won't fall below $112,000.