Bitwise CIO Declares “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Dead”—Is a Steady, Record-Breaking Boom Next?
Main Idea
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues that the traditional four-year crypto cycle is over, replaced by sustained growth driven by institutional investment, regulatory progress, and new financial products like ETFs.
Key Points
1. Hougan claims the four-year crypto cycle, historically driven by Bitcoin halvings and market blowups, is no longer relevant due to institutional involvement and long-term strategies.
2. He cites the reduced impact of Bitcoin halvings, fewer cyclical blowups, and the rise of crypto ETFs as factors diminishing the traditional cycle.
3. Hougan highlights regulatory advancements, such as the GENIUS Act, as stabilizing the industry and encouraging institutional investment.
4. He predicts a 'sustained steady boom' for crypto, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to demand from sovereign wealth funds and public companies.
5. Hougan notes that governments becoming Bitcoin holders has removed a major barrier, shifting focus from survival to growth.
Description
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says the long-observed four-year crypto cycle may no longer apply to the current market. In a recent discussion with Bitcoin advocate Kyle Chassé and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, Hougan argued that the historical pattern is breaking down, and a longer, more sustained growth phase could be on the horizon. Traditionally, crypto markets have followed a four-year rhythm driven by Bitcoin’s halving events, shifting interest rates, and the cyclical...
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