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Bitwise CIO Bets on Bitcoin Rally in 2026, Defying 4-Year Cycle

2025-07-27 15:43:30

Main Idea

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin could see major gains in 2026, breaking from its historic four-year cycle, due to factors like improving regulation and institutional adoption.

Key Points

1. Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle is losing influence, as each halving cuts rewards by a smaller absolute amount and the broader macro environment changes.

2. Hougan cites improving regulation and adoption by traditional firms as reasons for a sustained bullish momentum, though he warns of risks like overleveraged Bitcoin treasury companies.

3. Bitcoin is currently trading around $118,169, up over 10% in the past month, with Hougan's view aligning with CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju's declaration that the four-year cycle is 'dead' due to institutional adoption.

4. Not all analysts agree; Rekt Capital warns Bitcoin could peak in October if it mirrors its 2020 cycle, keeping it within its historic rhythm.

5. Tom Lee compares Bitcoin to 'Digital Gold,' suggesting a long-term price target of $200K–$250K, representing a fraction of gold's market value.

Description

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin could break from its historical four-year cycle and post significant gains in 2026 — a call that diverges from mainstream expectations of a cycle peak later this year. Key Takeaways: Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin could see major gains in 2026, breaking from its historic four-year cycle. He cites reduced halving impact, improving regulation, and institutional adoption as drivers of long-term momentum. Hougan warns that Bitco...

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