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Bitcoin’s rise with Wall Street comes at a potential philosophical cost

2025-07-18 19:19:37

Main Idea

Bitcoin's trading behavior has shifted to resemble a tech-heavy growth asset, showing strong correlations with major indices and negative correlations with credit risk indicators, while its core decentralized principles are being eroded by institutional custody and regulation.

Key Points

1. Bitcoin now trades like a tech-heavy growth asset, with strong positive correlations with SPY and QQQ, and negative correlations with the US Dollar Index (DXY) and high yield option-adjusted spreads (HY OAS).

2. Bitcoin's negative correlation with HY OAS means it underperforms when credit risk rises, indicating it behaves like a high-risk asset during market stress.

3. Custodial ETFs and funds hold over 1.4 million BTC (6.6% of total supply), while public and private companies hold 1.1 million BTC (5.3%), and governments hold around 500,000 BTC (2.4%), signaling a shift away from decentralization.

4. The rise of ETFs discourages self-custody, raising concerns about Bitcoin's original decentralized ethos as institutional involvement grows.

5. Institutional capital brings liquidity and credibility but risks undermining Bitcoin's foundational principles, with potential regulatory pressures leading to a bifurcation between 'clean' regulated Bitcoin and its original form.

Description

Institutional capital brings Bitcoin stability and status, but also systemic risk, regulatory pressure, and a creeping erosion of its core ethos.

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