Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Flashes Warning: Top of the Cycle Incoming?
Main Idea
The article analyzes Bitcoin's market cycle using the MVRV 365DMA metric, suggesting a potential double-top structure similar to 2021, while noting bullish momentum but also underlying risks.
Key Points
1. The Market Value to Realized Value, 365-day moving average (MVRV 365DMA) indicates a potential double-top structure for Bitcoin in 2025, resembling the 2021 cycle.
2. Analysts warn traders to tighten risk management as the MVRV enters a zone where optimism and caution must coexist, despite BTC nearing $119,000.
3. A bearish divergence between price and RSI, along with a liquidation cluster around $114,000-$113,600, poses mid-term downside risks.
4. BTC is currently trading at $118,800, up 0.5% in 24 hours but showing flat weekly momentum, signaling a potential pause in its upward trend.
5. The price has ranged between $117,953 and $119,754 in the last 24 hours, with a broader weekly range of $115,184 to $119,959.
Description
Analysts are sounding the alarm that Bitcoin’s current uptrend may be nearing a peak, not based on price action alone, but through a powerful on-chain metric: the Market Value to Realized Value, 365-day moving average (MVRV 365DMA). According to a July 28 analysis shared by CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei_dent, the 2025 cycle resembles 2021’s “double-top camel” structure, where two peaks formed roughly six months apart before ushering in a painful bear market. MVRV Flashing Caution The MVRV 365DM...
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