Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Dead, Says Pierre Rochard — Here’s What Drives BTC Price Now
Main Idea
Analysts argue that Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycle, driven by halving events, is no longer the primary market driver, with institutional inflows, ETF flows, and global liquidity now playing a more significant role.
Key Points
1. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, states that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is irrelevant now, as 95% of BTC has been mined and market dynamics are driven by institutional inflows and demand from ETFs and treasury companies.
2. The April 2024 halving did not follow the usual price rally pattern, as Bitcoin had already reached a new all-time high before the event, largely due to spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and institutional investment.
3. Analysts like Jason Dussault and Mete Al suggest Bitcoin's price is now influenced by global liquidity, ETF flows, and investor sentiment, marking a shift from its earlier supply-driven cycles.
4. The cryptocurrency market cap hit a record $4.13 trillion, surpassing the previous cycle's peak, with trading volumes surging to nearly $145 billion in 24 hours.
5. Some analysts warn against overconfidence, noting that the old cycle's predictability is gone, and future market movements will depend on macro conditions, institutional positioning, and capital flows rather than just halving events.
Description
For over a decade, Bitcoin’s market rhythm seemed predictable. Every four years, the halving event , a programmed cut to mining rewards, would trigger a chain reaction. Prices would climb to new highs, then collapse into a brutal “crypto winter,” only to begin the cycle again. That pattern has been treated almost like gospel among crypto traders. Now, some of the industry’s most vocal analysts say it may be over. From BTC Halvings to Liquidity Waves: Analysts Say Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Losing...
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