Bitcoin volatility hits 70%, echoes 2023 lows: Will history repeat itself?

Key Points

1. Bitcoin's quarterly Realized Volatility has dropped to 70%, nearing the September 2023 cycle low of 62%, indicating a consolidation phase.

2. On-chain activity is declining, with Transaction Count at 188,000 and Network Growth at 72,100, both multi-week lows, potentially signaling fading interest.

3. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio has spiked to 412, its highest level, suggesting an overheated market, though past spikes reversed quickly.

4. Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow Ratio has collapsed by 71.43%, challenging a core long-term valuation model.

5. The Puell Multiple at 1.25 reflects declining miner revenue, though it remains above the capitulation threshold of 0.4–0.5, indicating shrinking profitability without outright distress.