Bitcoin price gained 50% the last time its volatility fell this low

Key Points

1. The 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) for BTC has fallen to 40.84, below the threshold of 45, a level breached only 21 times since September 2022.

2. Historically, weekly closes below 45 on the BVIV have been followed by upward breakouts in BTC price, with the last instance in September 2023 resulting in a nearly 50% rally from $26,000.

3. Short-term holders (STH) show confidence, with the STH realized cap drawdown at -8%, indicating limited panic and low forced selling.

4. The STH market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is currently 1.19, below the cycle high of 1.33 in November 2024, suggesting holders are holding rather than exiting on small gains.

5. STH supply has increased to 4.58 million BTC from 4.36 million, indicating new demand and accumulation at higher price levels.