Bank of America’s Chief Predicts Fed’s Interest Rate Moves

Key Points

1. Brian Moynihan stated that the Fed might only consider cutting rates in 2026, citing prolonged high inflation and expected U.S. economic growth of 1 to 1.5 percent in 2025.

2. Consumer spending showed remarkable growth, exceeding 5 percent from July 2024 to July 2025, with strong financial capacity among consumers despite mortgage borrowing being 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels.

3. The U.S. unemployment rate is around 4.2 percent, indicating a full employment scenario.

4. Market expectations, as per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, show a 91.2 percent probability of a rate cut by the September FOMC meeting, contrasting with Bank of America's prediction.

5. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, below the projected 100,000, influencing market sentiment toward earlier rate cuts.