The predictability of Bitcoin’s four-year market cycles, historically driven by halving events and distinct price peaks, is now under intense scrutiny as experts debate whether established patterns are breaking down. Shifting market dynamics, primarily fueled by growing institutional investment and the significant rise of spot ETFs, appear to be fundamentally altering Bitcoin’s historical behavior.
A key factor contributing to this shift is the maturation of Bitcoin’s supply: 95% of the total possible supply has already been mined, fundamentally changing issuance dynamics and their impact on price action. This reduced new supply flow clashes with the traditional scarcity narrative directly linked to halving-events.
Significant divergence exists among analysts regarding the immediate future. While some experts, like Harry Collins, predict a bull market peak as soon as October, others maintain that the foundational four-year cycle structure retains its relevance for understanding long-term trends. This split highlights the lack of consensus in the current landscape.
Ultimately, the future relevance of Bitcoin’s conventional four-year cycle model remains highly uncertain. Market participants are divided, grappling with the complex interplay of legacy patterns against new forces like institutional capital flows and altered supply economics, leaving the long-established rhythm of Bitcoin’s market in question.