Bitcoin hovers near its all-time high of $111,970, signaling strong market positioning. However, excessive retail optimism suggests potential short-term consolidation or correction before sustainable upward momentum resumes. This cautious outlook is reinforced by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index registering a ‘Greed’ score of 72 out of 100, a level historically associated with temporary pauses preceding major rallies.
Historical data indicates Bitcoin’s third-quarter performance has consistently been its weakest since 2013, averaging just 6.03% returns. This contrasts sharply with fourth-quarter gains averaging 85.42%, pointing to possible delayed bullish momentum later in the year.
Meanwhile, Ethereum has surged from $1,472 to $2,793 since early April, drawing investor attention as a potential market leader. This rally positions Ethereum favorably should Bitcoin enter a prolonged consolidation phase reflecting shifting market dynamics.
Macroeconomic influences including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and seasonal trading patterns marked by lower summer volumes further contribute to Bitcoin’s immediate caution. These conditions may create tactical opportunities for Ethereum and other altcoins to demonstrate relative strength.