Bloomberg analysts continue to assign a 95% probability to the approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), even as broader market sentiment indicates a drop in approval odds to 66% following a dissenting vote by SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw.
Crenshaw opposed 13 cryptocurrency ETF proposals in a recent regulatory review, contributing to reduced optimism about near-term approval. However, experts including Eric Balchunas dismiss the impact of her dissent, citing her consistent opposition to all crypto-related ETFs—including spot Bitcoin products—and her history of being overruled by the majority of SEC commissioners.
Bloomberg’s team asserts that Crenshaw’s longstanding objections are unlikely to influence the SEC’s collective stance, emphasizing broader commissioner support and institutional demand as decisive factors. The agency has yet to issue formal guidance on XRP ETFs or address Crenshaw’s dissent publicly.