The MVRV 365-day moving average for Bitcoin shows a double-top formation reminiscent of the 2021 market cycle, indicating the current bull run could peak by late August or early September. This historically accurate metric compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized value, flagging overbought conditions when market value significantly exceeds realized value.
Macroeconomic catalysts including the newly ratified U.S.-EU trade agreement and a dovish Federal Reserve policy outlook continue providing tailwinds for cryptocurrency markets. These developments bolster institutional confidence and liquidity across digital asset markets despite ongoing consolidations.
Technically, Bitcoin is trading below the $120,000 resistance level with tightening Bollinger Bands indicating imminent volatility. The Relative Strength Index at 61 suggests building momentum short of overbought territory, though key support at $117,899 remains crucial. A confirmed breakout could propel prices toward $125,000, while failure to hold support risks testing $114,000.
The current technical structure shows no definitive reversal signals but requires monitoring. Traders anticipate directional clarity as Bollinger Band compression resolves amid these macroeconomic crosscurrents.