Bitcoin’s vulnerability to a significant price correction has intensified due to record-high Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) positioning in US equities and shifting macroeconomic expectations. Market analysts warn of a potential 10-30% decline in Bitcoin’s value over the coming weeks.
CTAs currently hold 110% long positions in US equities—their highest exposure level in four years. This extreme positioning historically signals heightened volatility risks for correlated assets like Bitcoin, raising concerns about near-term downward pressure.
Options markets reflect these bearish expectations, with traders accumulating put options targeting strike prices between $100,000 and $80,000. This activity indicates anticipation of a notable Bitcoin pullback within the next month.
Macroeconomic uncertainties are compounding these risks. Recent downward revisions to Nonfarm Payrolls data have increased speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in an 81.7% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction in September.
While experts suggest aggressive Fed easing—potentially up to 50 basis points—could stabilize Bitcoin prices medium-term, near-term volatility remains elevated. Some analysts anticipate sideways trading consolidation (‘chopsolidation’) rather than a sharp crash, with Bitcoin potentially finding support above $112,000.