Bitcoin’s recent correction below $104,000 could precede a potential 25% price surge toward $130,000 before the end of the second quarter, according to technical and onchain indicators. The cryptocurrency retreated to approximately $103,300 amid market caution preceding the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision, with analysts identifying a critical support zone between $102,000 and $104,000.
Onchain analysis reveals mid-cycle holders (6-12 months) have recently realized significant profits, diverging from historical patterns dominated by long-term investors. This shift indicates evolving market behavior despite geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty fueling risk-off sentiment. These conditions triggered over $434 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations, though consistent spot demand from U.S.-based investors continues to provide underlying support.
Maintaining price stability above $98,000 remains essential for preserving bullish market structure. A breakdown below this threshold could accelerate corrective momentum, while reclaiming the $106,748 resistance level may initiate upward movement toward $112,000 and ultimately the $130,000 target. The convergence of technical support levels, restrained selling pressure from long-term holders, and sustained spot market demand suggests the current price dip may present strategic accumulation opportunities ahead of potential recovery.