Bitcoin’s 30-day active supply has declined by 17% over the past month, signaling a potential cooling in short-term market activity. Despite this significant drop in coins moving on-chain, the Bitcoin price has demonstrated notable resilience, holding firmly above the $100,000 threshold.
This pattern of declining active supply often precedes major price movements, as evidenced by historical trends observed before the 2021 bull run and the 2022 price correction. The current contraction suggests a phase of short-term consolidation may be underway.
However, long-term network health indicators remain robust. The 365-day active supply change remains stable, indicating sustained network growth and a strong foundational market structure. This stability contrasts with the short-term cooling signal.
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlighted the historical significance of a -17% drop in active supply, noting it has frequently acted as a precursor to bullish price reversals in Bitcoin’s past.
Analysts interpret the divergence between the short-term supply dynamics and the stable high price, coupled with strong long-term metrics, as a sign that Bitcoin’s overall market trajectory remains fundamentally strong. Many anticipate potential rallies could follow the current consolidation phase.