ARK Invest’s latest analysis points to strong bullish indicators for Bitcoin as the cryptocurrency nears its all-time high, while also identifying potential headwinds. The report emphasizes unrealized profits are approximately one standard deviation above the historical mean, suggesting the market shows resilience without the speculative excess witnessed in past cycles.
Institutional demand remains pronounced, with Bitcoin ETF inflows surging over 120% last month. This growth starkly contrasts with concurrent outflows from gold ETFs, signaling shifting institutional capital allocation preferences.
Technically, Bitcoin has consistently held critical support levels including the 200-day moving average and the short-term holder realized price, indicating robust underlying demand despite price volatility.
Cautionary observations include declining Bitcoin network transaction volumes alongside materially reduced developer activity for Bitcoin Core, evidenced by a 10-year low in GitHub contributions.
Despite near-term challenges, ARK Invest maintains aggressive long-term Bitcoin projections. CEO Cathie Wood reaffirmed the firm’s base-case target of $1 million, with an ambitious bull-case target of $2.4 million by 2030 predicated on continued institutional adoption.