Crypto markets approach a significant quarterly options expiry event this week, with a combined notional value exceeding $5.76 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts reaching maturity. Analysts highlight max pain levels pointing to potential price corrections, though underlying market sentiment signals cautious optimism.
Bitcoin options account for the majority of the expiring contracts, standing at 40,945 with a notional value of $4.91 billion. The $114,000 max pain level for these BTC options sits notably below its current trading price near $120,259, a condition historically suggesting short-term downward pressure to inflict maximum losses on options holders.
Ethereum’s options expiry represents an $851 million exposure with a max pain level of $2,950, positioned below ETH’s current market value. This setup similarly hints at potential downside pressure for the asset.
Despite the correction signals, market positioning indicates tempered bullishness. Traders are favoring strategies like selling 30-day put options while simultaneously purchasing 30-day calls, reflecting an expectation of moderate upside while seeking protection from potential short-term losses.
Analysts note that the larger-than-usual size of this quarterly expiry could amplify market volatility. Predictions diverge, with potential scenarios suggesting Bitcoin could rally towards $150,000 by the year’s final quarter or enter a corrective phase following expiry. Ethereum’s persistently high implied volatility, currently around 70%, underscores ongoing market uncertainty despite recent price appreciation.
The outcome of this expiry event is seen as critical for determining near-term price direction across major digital assets.